The 2026 NFL season is underway, and while the playoff field is far from settled, the early-season picture is beginning to take shape. With Week 1 complete and teams beginning to establish their identities, fans across the country are already asking the same question: who will be playing in January?
This article presents the Newz18 projected NFL playoff bracket for 2026, built on current team analysis, offseason roster moves, scheduling factors, and our editorial assessment of the AFC and NFC landscapes. These are predictions, not official NFL standings or results. The playoff bracket will not be finalized until the regular season concludes, and projections will shift as the season progresses.
Below, we break down the projected playoff field, seed-by-seed analysis, Wild Card matchups, championship predictions, and our pick for Super Bowl LXI. All projections reflect our analysis as of September 10, 2026.
Newz18 Projected NFL Playoff Bracket 2026
The following is our projected playoff bracket based on current analysis. This is not the official NFL playoff bracket.
AFC Projected Seeds
- No. 1 seed — Baltimore Ravens
- No. 2 seed — Houston Texans
- No. 3 seed — Denver Broncos
- No. 4 seed — Buffalo Bills
- Wild Card — Kansas City Chiefs
- Wild Card — Cincinnati Bengals
- Wild Card — New England Patriots
NFC Projected Seeds
- No. 1 seed — San Francisco 49ers
- No. 2 seed — Los Angeles Rams
- No. 3 seed — Detroit Lions
- No. 4 seed — Philadelphia Eagles
- Wild Card — Seattle Seahawks
- Wild Card — Green Bay Packers
- Wild Card — Dallas Cowboys
Projected Bracket Table
| Conference | Seed | Projected Team | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC | 1 | Baltimore Ravens | Strong defense, division favorite with 60.9% projected division win probability |
| AFC | 2 | Houston Texans | Elite defense led by Anderson and Hunter; projected AFC South champion |
| AFC | 3 | Denver Broncos | Simulation favors Denver in AFC West at 47% division win probability |
| AFC | 4 | Buffalo Bills | Consistent contender; 52.4% projected chance to win AFC East |
| AFC | 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | Mahomes healthy; strong Wild Card despite projected second-place division finish |
| AFC | 6 | Cincinnati Bengals | High-powered offense; strong playoff odds at -200 |
| AFC | 7 | New England Patriots | Projected 10-7; playoff odds at -225 |
| NFC | 1 | San Francisco 49ers | FPI simulation projects 13-4 record and NFC West title |
| NFC | 2 | Los Angeles Rams | Strongest playoff favorite at -460; Super Bowl contender |
| NFC | 3 | Detroit Lions | Second-easiest schedule; strong offensive weapons |
| NFC | 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | Solid roster; playoff odds at -186 |
| NFC | 5 | Seattle Seahawks | Projected 12-5 in simulations; strong NFC West challenger |
| NFC | 6 | Green Bay Packers | Talented young roster; playoff odds at -146 |
| NFC | 7 | Dallas Cowboys | Playoff odds at -110; competitive in NFC East |
AFC Playoff Predictions 2026
The AFC projects as a deeply competitive conference with legitimate Super Bowl contenders stacked across all four divisions.
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens enter 2026 as our projected No. 1 seed in the AFC. According to SportsLine simulations, Baltimore has a 60.9% chance of winning the AFC North, well ahead of the Bengals at 22.7%. The Ravens’ combination of defensive excellence and offensive balance makes them a formidable playoff threat. Their path to the top seed appears favorable, though the division remains competitive.
AFC South: Houston Texans
The Texans are projected to claim the AFC South title for the third time in four years. C.J. Stroud enters his fourth season looking to recapture his rookie-year form, while the defense—anchored by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter—remains among the league’s elite. Houston’s projected division win probability sits at 47.8%, with the Jaguars (28%) and Colts (23.9%) close behind.
AFC West: Denver Broncos
In what may be the most intriguing division race, our projection has the Broncos edging out the Chiefs for the AFC West crown. SportsLine gives Denver a 47% chance of winning the division, ahead of Kansas City (32.6%) and the Chargers (20.1%). This projection reflects confidence in Denver’s roster construction and coaching staff.
AFC East: Buffalo Bills
The Bills remain the class of the AFC East, with a projected 52.4% chance of winning the division. Buffalo has dominated this division over the past decade, and despite the Patriots’ improvement, the Bills’ consistency and quarterback play keep them on top.
AFC Wild Card Teams
Kansas City Chiefs (No. 5 seed): Even in a projection where they don’t win the division, the Chiefs remain dangerous. Patrick Mahomes’ health and Andy Reid’s coaching give Kansas City a high playoff ceiling.
Cincinnati Bengals (No. 6 seed): The Bengals’ explosive offense makes them a tough out in January. Their -200 playoff odds reflect strong confidence in their postseason potential.
New England Patriots (No. 7 seed): Our projection has the Patriots returning to the playoffs with a 10-7 record. The addition of A.J. Brown and other reinforcements has boosted expectations.
NFC Playoff Predictions 2026
The NFC features several legitimate Super Bowl contenders, with the NFC West emerging as arguably the deepest division in football.
NFC West: San Francisco 49ers
ESPN’s Football Power Index simulation projects the 49ers to win the NFC West with a 13-4 record and claim the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The NFC West boasts three of FPI’s top five teams entering 2026, making this division the most competitive in the conference. Kyle Shanahan’s squad has the talent and coaching to make a deep playoff run.
NFC North: Detroit Lions
Our projection has the Lions reclaiming the NFC North title. Detroit projects to play the league’s second-easiest schedule in 2026, per FPI. With offensive weapons like Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta, plus a healthy Aidan Hutchinson on defense, the Lions appear poised for a bounce-back season.
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles remain a strong playoff contender with -186 odds to make the postseason. Their roster talent and recent playoff experience make them a dangerous opponent in January.
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The NFC South remains the most unpredictable division in football. Our projection gives the Buccaneers a slight edge, though the Panthers, Saints, and Falcons all have pathways to contention. Tampa Bay’s +130 playoff odds reflect the uncertainty in this division.
NFC Wild Card Teams
Seattle Seahawks (No. 5 seed): Despite projections showing the Seahawks finishing second in the NFC West, they remain a strong playoff team with a projected 12-5 record in some simulations.
Green Bay Packers (No. 6 seed): The Packers’ talented young roster and playoff odds of -146 make them a solid Wild Card pick.
Dallas Cowboys (No. 7 seed): With -110 playoff odds, the Cowboys are positioned as a bubble team that could sneak into the postseason.
2026 NFL Playoff Seeds Prediction
The seed-by-seed projections reflect a combination of division rankings, conference standings, and tiebreaker scenarios.
AFC Seeds Explained
The Ravens claim the top seed due to their projected division title and strong overall record. Houston’s elite defense earns them the No. 2 seed, while Denver’s projected AFC West title gives them the No. 3 spot. Buffalo rounds out the division winners at No. 4.
The Wild Card teams—Kansas City, Cincinnati, and New England—represent a mix of established contenders and emerging programs. The Chiefs’ experience gives them the edge for the No. 5 seed, while the Bengals’ offense and Patriots’ improvement secure the final two spots.
NFC Seeds Explained
San Francisco’s projected 13-4 record and NFC West title earn them the No. 1 seed. The Rams, despite strong Super Bowl odds, are projected as the No. 2 seed due to the 49ers’ division dominance. Detroit’s favorable schedule and offensive firepower secure the No. 3 seed, with Philadelphia at No. 4.
Seattle, Green Bay, and Dallas fill out the Wild Card positions, with the Seahawks’ strong projection earning them the highest Wild Card seed.
NFL Wild Card Predictions 2026
Under our current projected bracket, the Wild Card round would feature the following matchups:
AFC Wild Card Matchups
Matchup: (2) Houston Texans vs. (7) New England Patriots
Prediction: Houston Texans
Why: The Texans’ elite defense would present a significant challenge for the Patriots’ offense. Houston’s pass rush, led by Anderson and Hunter, could disrupt New England’s rhythm and control the game.
Matchup: (3) Denver Broncos vs. (6) Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: Denver Broncos
Why: Denver’s balanced approach and home-field advantage give them the edge in this matchup. The Broncos’ defense should be able to contain Cincinnati’s explosive passing attack enough to secure a win.
Matchup: (4) Buffalo Bills vs. (5) Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs
Why: In what would be a marquee Wild Card matchup, the Chiefs’ playoff experience and Mahomes’ big-game pedigree give them the edge. This game could go either way, but Kansas City’s championship DNA makes them dangerous.
NFC Wild Card Matchups
Matchup: (2) Los Angeles Rams vs. (7) Dallas Cowboys
Prediction: Los Angeles Rams
Why: The Rams enter the playoffs as the strongest NFC favorite at -460. Their roster depth and coaching give them a clear advantage over a Cowboys team that would be fighting to extend its season.
Matchup: (3) Detroit Lions vs. (6) Green Bay Packers
Prediction: Detroit Lions
Why: The Lions’ offensive weapons and home-field advantage at Ford Field make them tough to beat. Detroit’s motivation to avenge recent playoff disappointments adds urgency.
Matchup: (4) Philadelphia Eagles vs. (5) Seattle Seahawks
Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles
Why: The Eagles’ playoff experience and roster talent give them the edge in a close matchup. Seattle’s strong regular season doesn’t always translate to January success.
AFC Championship Prediction
Projected Matchup: (1) Baltimore Ravens vs. (2) Houston Texans
The AFC Championship could feature a battle between Baltimore’s balanced attack and Houston’s dominant defense. The Ravens’ offensive versatility, led by their quarterback and running game, would test the Texans’ elite defensive unit.
Key factors:
- Quarterback play: Baltimore’s signal-caller has proven playoff experience, while Houston’s C.J. Stroud looks to break through on the biggest stage.
- Defense: Houston’s pass rush is among the league’s best, but Baltimore’s offensive line is built to handle pressure.
- Coaching: Both staffs are well-regarded, but playoff experience may tip the scales.
Our pick: Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens’ combination of offensive balance, defensive consistency, and playoff experience gives them a slight edge in what would be a tightly contested AFC Championship.
NFC Championship Prediction
Projected Matchup: (1) San Francisco 49ers vs. (2) Los Angeles Rams
An all-NFC West championship game would showcase the conference’s two best teams. The 49ers’ projected No. 1 seed status and home-field advantage could prove decisive.
Key factors:
- Division familiarity: These teams know each other well, which could lead to a physical, tactical battle.
- Roster depth: Both teams are stacked with talent, but San Francisco’s defensive line and offensive versatility give them a slight edge.
- Coaching: Kyle Shanahan’s playoff experience and offensive creativity could be the difference.
Our pick: San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers’ home-field advantage and balanced roster make them our pick to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LXI.
Super Bowl LXI Prediction
Projected matchup: Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers
Our pick: San Francisco 49ers
Super Bowl LXI would pit two of the NFL’s most complete teams against each other. The Ravens’ defensive prowess and offensive efficiency would challenge San Francisco’s balanced attack and defensive line dominance.
Our projection gives the 49ers a narrow edge due to their offensive versatility, coaching staff, and overall roster depth. However, this is a prediction, not a guarantee—both teams have the talent to win it all, and the game would likely come down to execution and situational football.
NFL Playoff Sleepers to Watch in 2026
Los Angeles Chargers
Current situation: Playoff odds at -168; projected as a Wild Card contender.
Biggest strength: Justin Herbert’s arm talent and an improved offensive scheme under Mike McDaniel.
Biggest concern: Defensive deficiencies in the secondary could be exploited in the playoffs.
Playoff path: The Chargers would need to navigate a competitive AFC West and secure a Wild Card berth.
Minnesota Vikings
Current situation: Playoff odds at +154; on the bubble in the NFC.
Biggest strength: Talented roster with playmakers on both sides of the ball.
Biggest concern: Quarterback consistency and division competition.
Playoff path: A Wild Card spot is achievable if the Vikings can avoid the late-season collapses that have plagued them.
Indianapolis Colts
Current situation: Playoff odds at +170; outside looking in.
Biggest strength: Shane Steichen’s coaching and a competitive roster.
Biggest concern: Daniel Jones’ durability and the team’s recent late-season struggles.
Playoff path: The Colts would need to outperform expectations in the AFC South.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Current situation: Playoff odds at +140; Wild Card contender.
Biggest strength: Strong trenches and defensive playmaking.
Biggest concern: Aaron Rodgers’ age and playoff sustainability.
Playoff path: The Steelers face the league’s eighth-easiest schedule, which could help them approach 10 wins.
Chicago Bears
Current situation: Playoff odds at -105; on the bubble.
Biggest strength: Caleb Williams’ potential and Ben Johnson’s offensive scheme.
Biggest concern: Regression after a season built on close-game success.
Playoff path: The Bears would need to avoid a step backward in a competitive NFC North.
Teams at Risk of Missing the 2026 NFL Playoffs
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers won the NFC South last season but face the toughest schedule in their division in 2026. Injuries have already hit the roster, with players like Taylor Moton and Ikem Ekwonu out before the season begins. A return to the playoffs appears unlikely.
Jacksonville Jaguars
After a surprising 13-4 season, the Jaguars face regression concerns. Their playoff push was driven by defensive takeaways and favorable late-season matchups, which may not repeat. Playing a league-high 11 games away from their home stadium adds to the challenge.
Miami Dolphins
Projected to finish 1-16 in some simulations, the Dolphins appear to be in rebuilding mode. A playoff berth would require a dramatic turnaround.
What Could Change This NFL Playoff Bracket?
This projection will evolve significantly as the 2026 season unfolds. Key factors that could shift the bracket include:
Injuries: A major injury to a quarterback or key defensive player could alter a team’s playoff trajectory.
Division races: Early-season results will shape division standings, and tiebreakers could become critical in December.
Schedule difficulty: Teams that appear playoff-bound now may face tougher stretches later in the season.
Coaching changes: In-season adjustments or coordinator changes could impact team performance.
Quarterback situations: Development or regression at the quarterback position often determines playoff success.
Readers should return for updated projections as the season progresses. Major developments—such as significant injuries, division-changing results, or playoff-clinching scenarios—will prompt updates to this analysis.
NFL Playoff Tiebreakers and Seeding Explained
NFL playoff seeding is determined by division rankings and conference standings. Division winners are guaranteed a top-four seed, while Wild Card teams fill seeds five through seven.
When teams have identical records, the NFL uses a series of tiebreakers to determine seeding. These include:
- Head-to-head record
- Division record
- Common opponents
- Conference record
- Strength of victory
- Strength of schedule
Understanding these tiebreakers helps explain why teams with similar records can end up with different seeds—and why late-season games often carry significant playoff implications.;
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the projected NFL playoff bracket for 2026?
Our Newz18 projection has the Ravens, Texans, Broncos, and Bills as AFC division winners, with the Chiefs, Bengals, and Patriots as Wild Cards. In the NFC, we project the 49ers, Lions, Eagles, and Buccaneers as division winners, with the Rams, Seahawks, Packers, and Cowboys competing for Wild Card spots.
Who is projected to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC?
The Baltimore Ravens are our projected No. 1 seed in the AFC. SportsLine simulations give Baltimore a 60.9% chance of winning the AFC North, and their balanced roster makes them a strong contender for the top seed.
Who is projected to be the No. 1 seed in the NFC?
The San Francisco 49ers are our projected No. 1 seed in the NFC. ESPN’s FPI simulation projects the 49ers to finish 13-4 and win the NFC West.
Which teams are predicted to make the NFL playoffs in 2026?
In the AFC, we project the Ravens, Texans, Broncos, Bills, Chiefs, Bengals, and Patriots. In the NFC, we project the 49ers, Rams, Lions, Eagles, Seahawks, Packers, and Cowboys. These are predictions based on current analysis, not official results.
Who are the 2026 NFL Wild Card teams?
AFC Wild Cards: Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots. NFC Wild Cards: Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys. These projections will change as the season progresses.
Who is predicted to win Super Bowl LXI?
Our Newz18 pick for Super Bowl LXI is the San Francisco 49ers over the Baltimore Ravens. This is an editorial prediction, not a guarantee. Both teams have the talent to win it all.
When do the 2026 NFL playoffs begin?
The NFL playoffs typically begin in early January following the conclusion of the regular season. The Wild Card round is scheduled for the weekend after Week 18.
How many teams make the NFL playoffs?
Fourteen teams make the NFL playoffs: seven from the AFC and seven from the NFC. Four division winners from each conference receive automatic bids, and three Wild Card teams per conference qualify based on record.
When will the official 2026 NFL playoff bracket be finalized?
The official playoff bracket will be finalized after Week 18 of the regular season, when all division races and Wild Card positions are determined.
How often should NFL playoff predictions be updated?
Playoff projections should be updated weekly during the regular season, and more frequently after major developments such as significant injuries, division-changing results, or quarterback changes.